On the link between climate and conflict in West Africa

The impacts of climate change are a major factor behind the proliferation of conflicts across West Africa’s Sahelian and Sudanian regions. But it would be too simplistic to conclude that further deterioration will inevitably follow, as the context is complicated because of many other factors, both negative (banditry in Nigeria, for example, or the deterioration of relations between ECOWAS and AES states), and positive (e.g. the highly advanced food crisis early warning system, or the success of mediation programmes in central Mali and Nigeria. The strength of social cohesion and traditions in certain communities that are under stress should not be underestimated.