The regional impact of the crisis in Côte d'Ivoire: Analysis of the current situation and of future macro-economic scenarios

By Philippe Hugon
English

This paper offers a preliminary estimate of the macro-economic cost of the political crisis in C?te d'Ivoire for this country and the other WAEMU members for the year 2002. Using the AFD's Jumbo model, different scenarios are tested and quantified for the years 2003 and 2004. Even though the damage in 2002 was very serious from a social, human, and political perspective, it appears that the immediate economic cost of the situation was eventually rather limited during this year. The perspectives for 2003 are very different, however, with a significant drop in GDP forecasted in C?te d'Ivoire. Sahelian countries' capacity for adjustment have been now been reached, so Burkina Faso and Mali will bear the full brunt of the crisis.

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